Daily Forecast Analysis from Metra

Along with fast data availability, Metra provides expert analysis of the model output. Just another great tool from Metra to assist in your trading decisions.
Sign up for your daily copy of the Weather Commentary when you request your FAST Trader order!

From: Steve Sanders
Sent: 29 January 2010 06:48
To: Commentary Recipient

Subject: Weather Commentary Metra FAST Trader 29Jan10 - Some divergence between models 31st Jan to 2nd February

All of the forecast models continue to indicate that temperatures will cool to between 3C and 5C below average for the end of this week before warming to around 2C below average over the weekend, then gradually cooling during Week Ahead and into next weekend.

There is general agreement between the models for the next few days, especially the Metra and Ensemble forecasts; the latest EC Ensemble run is about 1C cooler than the Metra forecast throughout the forecast period, while the GFS Ensemble run is generally 1C or 2C milder, except from 31st Jan to 2nd Feb when it is in good agreement with the Metra forecast;

http://www.metra-fasttrader.com/ec12_ens/tmean/

http://www.metra-fasttrader.com/gfs00_ens/tmean/

There is also good agreement between the Metra and EC Deterministic runs, with the EC00 Deterministic forecast up to 1C cooler at times. The GFS00 Deterministic model though does not agree with the other models for between 31st Jan and 2nd Feb, staying 4C or 5C below average, while becoming milder than the Metra forecast from 5th and 6th Feb;

http://www.metra-fasttrader.com/ec00_det/tmean/

http://www.metra-fasttrader.com/gfs00_det/tmean/

The uncertainty between the models on 1st and 2nd Feb continues to be due to disagreement over the development of high pressure to the Southwest of the U.K., with most models expecting a milder W or SW'ly air mass to move in, but with the possibility of a cooler and more NW'ly airflow across the country.

Introducing Metra FAST Trader - Analysis Tool.

Within seconds you can track a models evolution over the past 4 runs or, you can plot the recent runs of all models and see the latest 'temperature story' at a glance.

The Analysis Tool is located on the FAST Trader website at

http://www.metra-fasttrader.com/data/analysis/

By the end of the week we will also have a skill scoring feature in the product. This will show the recent bias and error in each model.

Steve Sanders BSc(Hons), MSc
Forecaster
Weather Commerce Ltd
Tel: 0121-6883992
Mobile: 07761-756201
E-mail: stevesanders@weathercommerce.net
Skyp: steve.sanders269 Web: www.weathercommerce.net